Monday, 23 November 2009

What is a limit order

Limit Order simply put is a place that you want to exit WITH PROFIT.

It is opposite of stop-order which is used also for EXIT - but with loss. Stop-order is used to cut your losses. Limit order is used to take your profits.

What is a trailing stop

Trailing stop simply put "is the number of pips the market should move your stop-order"

Let's say you place a buy-order for gbp/usd at 1.9500 - and the your stop-order is at 1.9450 (stop-order is nothing but stop-here-and-get-me-out-of-the-trade order)

Scene 1: A few hours (mins) later you realize that your order started making your profit - the market moved up to 1.9575 - profit = 75 pips.

Scene2: You return again - after a few more hours - and see that the market is now at 1.9620 - netting you a profit of sweet 120 pips.

Now, let's see what happens with the trailing stop:

scene #Opened at:stop-orderTrailing StopCurrent Market PriceProfit-locked
11.95001.945050

21.95001.9500501.95500
Notice when the market hit 1.9550 (50 pips from your original opening price) - the trailing stop which was also set at 50 - moved your stop-order up to 1.9500 - so should the market turn around come back to 1.9500- your order would be removed with NO LOSS to you.
31.95001.9500501.95750
The market went further to reach 1.9575 - 25 pips more than scene #2 - but since it has not reached 50-pips from the scene #2 - you stop-order is still at 1.9500
51.95001.9550501.960050
Now, the market moved to 1.9600 - that's 100 pips away from your opening price - the stop-order has been moved to 1.9550 - locking in 50 pips. However, you won't get out of the trade unless the market reaches 1.9550 - say the market keeps moving up to 1.9650...
61.95001.9600501.9650100
If the market reached 1.9650 - you would have locked in 100 pips profit - again, your trade is not closed yet - you just locked the profits - the market could still go up and give you more profit or turn back and close your trade for a sweet 100 pips profit.
71.95001.9600501.9650100
The setting is same as scene #6 - you locked 100 pips in profit, but look at the trade - at this point when the market is at 1.9650 - thats 150 pips profit - if you close the trade NOW. 50 pips more than your locked-profit. Since, we don't expect to be at the computer all day - you can use लिमिट order to get out here - making an extra 50 pips that just using trailing stop.



Now all this profit would have been lost - if you didn't use trailing stop - the market could have hit 1.9625 - that's 125 pips from your opening price and turned right around and came back to test 1.9500 again - its wise to lock in your profits.

Again, if you think that the market has certain potential - which you happen to know - based on daily-range or other variables - you can use "limit order" - which we discuss in the next lesson - as an exit for your order.

However, we stronly recommend that you use BOTH the trailing stop (which cannot be used without a stop-order) - and a Limit order - you have better chance of making profit - albeit small - a profit is still a profit - who knows, you might actually hit your limit order and make the "desired" profit - which we should be first to tell you - doesn't happen always - but it DOES happen - its not impossible.


What is a stop loss

Stop loss or stop order is a point in the market where you tell your forex broker to take you out of the market when you order isn't going the way you expected.

Let's look at an example for EUR/USD pair:

You are placing an Entry order:
  • You want to buy order @ 1.3400: cause you believe that the market will move up when it hits 1.3400
  • Now, if the market comes down INSTEAD of going up - you want to save your capital. So, you tell your forex broker (using your trading station software) that you want to be removed from the market if the market comes down 1.3350 - THIS IS CALLED AS A STOP LOSS.

Trading forex is not just about winning - yes! you need to place winning trades - but it is also about cutting your losses when you placed a wrong trade.

Stop loss is mechanical and does not have any emotions - however, most people once they placed the order - keep moving the stop loss - this is a VERY BAD IDEA.

Stop loss is provided for ONE single purpose - to remove you from the market when it isn't going the way you predicted - thus saving your capital and this allowing you to place more trades.

in conclusion STOP LOSS is just that - it STOPS your LOSSES.

Stop loss is the opposite of LIMIT ORDER - read more about it in the next chapter

Placing an order

Ok! you are ready to place an order - you might think what's the big deal - I will click a few buttons and its done! - technically, yes its just pushing few buttons - but you should look for few things before you become click-happy.

First things first. What type of order would you like to place? - huh?! - ok here are two types.
  • Market Order
  • Entry Order


Market Order: literally means that - you are in the market and you see something that you want - you place an order - just like buying groceries - you only order when you are in the market (I know, I know you can order groceries online now - sheesh!! its hard to come with analogies these days - he!he!)

Your market order is placed IMMEDIATELY!! - remember that - you won't have time to second guess or debate your strategy - nothing - you say you want it - they'll give it to you.

Its one thing to buy a few tomatoes and throw them away without using them (we all did that at some point in life) - its another thing to buy currency - you will have to live with the consequences.

If you get my drift - you'd probably guess that i'd say: Market order is NOT a good idea.

Entry Order On contrary Entry order is setting criteria for your order to be executed - you are telling your broker/trading platform - that you need to get in "IF AND ONLY IF" - the market reaches this point (say 1.9500 in gbp/usd - buy me in).

The beauty of this is - you can second guess and even remove your order without ANY penalities - if you think that you might have a made a mistake or something happens to the market and it starts going the other way - get out - without any loss - its easier to end a trade before you are in the market - than otherwise - if you are in the market, you will have to deal with emotions & the sort.

Again, your chance of second guessing is only limited till the time the order is execucted - that is till the market reaches the point you specified.

Entry order - gives you time to set your Stop-order, trailing stop and even limit order - and you can walk away knowing that your order will be executed - except in rare occasions such as "news" - they you might get filled at a later point - say at 1.9525 instead of 1.9500 following the above example.

TIP: its never a good idea to fill in order at a round number (like 1.9500) - always do it just below or above it. Why you ask? - because round numbers tend to act as support and resistance by default - not everytime - but they do take on that role involuntarily.

Meaning and value of a PIP

Meaning and value of a Price interest point - PIP. It is the lowest denominator in currency trading - the actual value of a pip is based on your type of account - usually for

  • standard accounts - ONE pip=$10
  • for mini accounts - ONE pip=$1

    Before we get into this more - let's cover some topics that will make it easier for you to understand and appreciate the value of a PIP.

  • Choosing a Forex Broker and a Charting package

    These are TWO distinct subjects.


    1. Forex Broker (who handles your transactions and keeps a record of them)
    2. Charting Package (a tool that fits your personality)


    Okay, here's a radical idea: you DON'T have to use your forex broker's charts. Radical maybe a stretch but from what we gathered most people use (atleast for the lack of creativity) the broker's charting package.

    Between your broker and charting package - your broker would be the first one you'd boot (let go) - then your charting package.

    Yes! its important to have a reliable broker - who has enough NET assets that allows the brokerage to liquidate your account easily.

    However, your charting package is the "DECISION MAKER" - you make your decisions based on what the charts are showing you and your ability to read them correctly.

    It is VERY important to get a charting package - which has atleast a few of the following:

    1. Tools that you know you need (will use).
    2. Tools that you MIGHT want to use in your back-testing
    3. Tools that generate "alerts" when needed - for example, you might have drawn what you think is an IMPORTANT support or resistance on the chart - what good is it gonna do you - if it doesn't "ring a bell" when the market hits that price? - maybe your in the other room - or maybe you on the same computer reading an interesting article about Obama vs McCain (?) - shouldn't your charting package "alert" you of a moving market?
    4. I personally would prefer a package that would alert me a few PIPS - BEFORE my support or resistance is hit - either it can make noise on my computer or send me a text message - so far, I am yet to realize this joy in my life.
    5. You also need a charting package that doesn't use much of your computer's resource - who wants something that freezes up your computer every now & then?
    6. Last but not the least - you will need something that you "enjoy" or atleast "tolerate" looking at - that's only achievable if the charting package allows you to change backgrounds, candlestick colors, trendline, channel colors etc..

    Prepare a list of "what my charting package SHOULD be" - and then compare it with what's available. Take them for a test drive - almost all of the package subscriptions can be taken for a test drive - just make sure to cancel them (if you don't like it)

    Forex Brokers on the other hand - the only test drive you can do - is use their demo accounts - and "feel" their trading platform and execution.

    All the best in your setup.

    Forex Leverage and Spreads

    Forex Leverage and Forex Spreads are TWO distinct features of Forex Market.

    Let's deal with Forex Spread first.

    A spread is the difference between BUY and SELL price of a currency pair.

    Your broker will give you TWO different prices for the same currency pair - example:

    Eur/Usd: 1.5586 (sell) and 1.5589 (buy)

    so, if you want to SELL the EUR/USD currency (because you think USD dollar is going to go up) - then you will be able to sell it at 1.5586

    IF you are going to BUY the EUR/USD currency(because you think EURO is going up) - then you wil be able to buy it at 1.5589

    The difference between buy and sell (1.5589-1.5586) = 3 pips is called the SPREAD.

    Spread is basically the broker's fee for opening your trade.

    Currencies are traded in Pairs

    Pairs
    Forex is significantly different from other markets - in the sense that the currency of a country is traded AGAINST another country's currency. Unlike in a stock market or commodities market - you trade stock or commodity of its own value.

    Example: Euro is traded against US dollar - This is called a forex currency "pair" - this pair is commonly referred to as "EUR/USD".

    How the pair works:
    In the above EUR/USD pair
    • If the European Economy is doing better than the US economy then EURO gains in value AGAINST US dollar
    • if the US economy is doing better then European economy then USD gains value AGAINST Euro.

    To keep matters simple, all forex brokers and banks refer to Euro USD pair as EUR/USD (not USD/EUR).

    Trading pairs
    Now that we know what a currency pair is - let's look at how it is traded. In any given pair:
    1. the first currency is called a Base Currency
    2. The second currency is called quote currency or counter currency
    When you place a "buy" order for this currency pair (eur/usd) - you are actually BUYING Euro and SELLING US dollar.
    on the other hand, if you place a "sell" order for this currency pair (eur/usd) - you are actually SELLING Euro and BUYING US dollar.

    Instant recap:
    • In a "buy" order you BUY base currency and sell quote currency of any given pair.
    • In a "sell" order you SELL base currency and buy quote currency of any given pair.

    Reading forex quotes:
    Let's jump right into it - here's how a EUR/USD pair quote looks like:

    1.3396

    did you say huh?! - good!!! you are on the right track!

    Let's decipher: It takes 1.3396 US dollars (quote currency) to buy the 1 EURO (base currency)

    Hope you figured out why the second currency is called Quote currency - all forex quotes are given in the quote currency
    Here are few forex quotes:
    (a) USD/JPY = 123.53 (jpy=japanese yen)
    It takes ______ of _________ to buy _________

    (b) GBP/USD = 1.9801 (gbp=british pound)
    It takes ______ of _________ to buy _________

    (c) USD/CHF = 1.2409 (chf=swiss franc)
    It takes ______ of _________ to buy _________

    Try to answer them first and then see the answers below.
    Forex Majors:
    Four forex currency pairs are called Forex Majors - they are:
    • EUR/USD - Euro / US dollar
    • GBP/USD - British Pound vs US dollar
    • USD/JPY - US dollar vs Japanese yen
    • USD/CHF - US dollars vs Swiss franc
    These currencies are considered to be stable currencies in the world.

    Now that we figured out the forex currency pairs and how they work - let's figure how to make money trading them

    Answers:
    (a) USD/JPY = 123.53
    It takes 123.53 japanese Yen to buy 1 US dollar

    (b)GBP/USD = 1.9801
    it takes 1.9801 US dollars to buy 1 british pound

    (c)USD/CHF = 1.2409
    it takes 1.2409 swiss francs to buy 1 US डोल्लर


    What is Forex

    The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest market in the world, in terms of cash value traded, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. Retail traders (small speculators) are a small part of this market. They may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks

    The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. For example, the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th, 2003 was 1.0857. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date, he would have paid 1085.70 U.S. dollars. One year later, the Forex rate was 1.2083, which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.S. dollar.

    The investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208.30 dollars. Therefore, the investor would have USD 122.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. However, to know if the investor made a good investment, one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. At the very minimum, the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U.S. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default, i.e. the U.S. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation.

    When trading currencies, trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. If the currency you are buying does increase in value, you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position.

    However, it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.

    Introduction of Euro

    Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the 1960?s. A number of realignments held the system alive for a long time but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early 1970?s following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was not any longer suited as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.

    The last few decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the worlds largest global market. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.

    In Europe, the idea of fixed exchange rates had by no means died. The European Economic Community introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to fix exchange rates met with near extinction in 1992-93, when built-up economic pressures forced devaluations of a number of weak European currencies. The quest continued in Europe for currency stability with the 1991 signing of The Maastricht treaty. This was to not only fix exchange rates but also actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2002.

    Today, Europe has embraced the Euro in 12 participating countries. The physical introduction of the Euro on January 1, 2002 saw the old countries currencies made obsolete on July 1, 2002.

    London was, and remains the principal offshore market. In the 1980s, it became the key center in the Eurodollar market when British banks began lending dollars as an alternative to pounds in order to maintain their leading position in global finance. London?s convenient geographical location (operating during Asian and American markets) is also instrumental in preserving its dominance in the Euromarket.

    Beginning of Free Floating system

    After the Bretton Woods Accord came the Smithsonian Agreement in December of 1971. This agreement was similar to the Bretton Woods Accord, but allowed for a greater fluctuation band for the currencies. In 1972, the European community tried to move away from its dependency on the dollar. The European Joint Float was established by West Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg. The agreement was similar to the Bretton Woods Accord, but allowed a greater range of fluctuation in the currency values

    Both agreements made mistakes similar to the Bretton Woods Accord and in 1973 collapsed. The collapse of the Smithsonian agreement and the European Joint Float in 1973 signified the official switch to the free-floating system. This occurred by default as there were no new agreements to take their place. Governments were now free to peg their currencies, semi-peg or allow them to freely float. In 1978, the free-floating system was officially mandated.

    In a final effort to gain independence from the dollar, Europe created the European Monetary System in July of 1978. Like all of the previous agreements, it failed in 1993.

    The major currencies today move independently from other currencies. The currencies are traded by anyone who wishes. This has caused a recent influx of speculation by banks, hedge funds, brokerage houses and individuals. Central banks intervene on occasion to move or attempt to move currencies to their desired levels. The underlying factor that drives today's forex markets, however, is supply and demand.

    The onset of computers and technology in the 1980s accelerated the pace of extending the market continuum for cross-border capital movements through Asian, European and American time zones. Transactions in foreign exchange increased intensively from nearly billion a day in the 1980s, to more than $1.9 trillion a day two decades later.

    The Bretton Woods Accord

    The Deal
    Near the end of WWII, The Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The conference held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favor of a system built on the US Dollar.

    International institutions such as the IMF, The World Bank and GATT were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WWII searched for a way to avoid the destabilizing monetary crises leading to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that reinstated The Gold Standard partly, fixing the USD at $35.00 per ounce of Gold and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar, initially intended to be on a permanent basis.

    The Hope
    The agreement was aimed at establishing international monetary steadiness by preventing money from taking flight across countries, and to curb speculation in the international currency market. Participating countries agreed to try to maintain the value of their currency within a narrow margin against the dollar and an equivalent rate of gold as needed.

    The Result
    As a result, the dollar gained a premium position as a reference currency, reflecting the shift in global economic dominance from Europe to the USA. Countries were prohibited from devaluing their currency to benefit their foreign trade and were only allowed to devalue their currency by less than 10%. The great volume of international Forex trade led to massive movements of capital, which were generated by post-war construction during the 1950s, and this movement destabilized the foreign exchange rates established in Bretton Woods.

    Abandon Ship! - Every man for himself
    The year 1971 heralded the abandonment of the Bretton Woods in that the US dollar would no longer be exchangeable into gold.

    Let's Float
    By 1973, the forces of supply and demand controlled major industrialized nations' currencies, which now floated more freely across nations. Prices were floated daily, with volumes, speed and price volatility all increasing throughout the 1970s, and new financial instruments, market deregulation and trade liberalization emerged.

    History of Money

    The Barter System
    Centuries ago, the value of goods were expressed in terms of other goods - This sort of economics was based on the barter system between individuals - exchange goods for goods.

    Introduction of Money
    Money has been around in one form or another since the time of Pharaohs. The Babylonians are credited with the first use of paper bills and receipts, but Middle Eastern moneychangers were the first currency traders who exchanged coins from one culture to another.

    Coins were initially minted from the preferred metal and in stable political regimes, the introduction of a paper form of governmental I.O.U. during the Middle Ages also gained acceptance. This type of I.O.U. was introduced more successfully through force than through persuasion and is now the basis of today?s modern currencies.

    These paper bills represented transferable third-party payments of funds, making foreign currency exchange trading much easier for merchants and traders and causing these regional economies to flourish.

    The Gold Standard
    Before the first World war, most Central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. Paper money could always be exchanged for gold. However, for this type of gold exchange, there was not necessarily a Centrals bank need for full coverage of the government's currency reserves. This did not occur very often, however when a group mindset fostered this disastrous notion of converting back to gold in mass, panic resulted in so-called "Run on banks " The combination of a greater supply of paper money without the gold to cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability.

    In order to protect local national interests, increased foreign exchange controls were introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.